What type of meteorological hazard to safe flight is most likely to be experienced during the final approach to Geneva (ETA 12:00 UTC) ?
TAF LSGG 020900Z 0210/0219 18007KT 9999 SCT020 BKN100 BECMG 0211/0214 RA SCT010 OVC020 PROB30 TEMPO 0211/0218 VRB10G25KT 4000 TSRA SCT005 BKN015CB=
TAF LSGG 020900Z 0210/0219 18007KT 9999 SCT020 BKN100 BECMG 0211/0214 RA SCT010 OVC020 PROB30 TEMPO 0211/0218 VRB10G25KT 4000 TSRA SCT005 BKN015CB=
Period of validity is stated as 10:00 UTC day 2 until 19:00 UTC day 2(0210/0219).
Initial weather conditions are forecasted to be:
- 18007KT = wind 180º at 7 KT
- 9999 = visibility 10 km or more
- SCT020 = scattered clouds at 2000 ft
- BKN100 = broken layer at 10 000 ft
A change of permanent character is expected to occur on day 2 at any time between 11:00 and 14:00 (BECMG 0211/0214). After the change occurs, the following conditions are to be expected:
- RA = moderate rain
- SCT010 = scattered clouds at 1000 ft
- OVC020 = overcast layer at 2000 ft
Next changes expected are of temporary character (PROB30 TEMPO 0211/0218) => which means that the listed conditions can occur on day 2 at any time between 11:00 and 18:00 UTC, but are not of permanent character and may occur momentarily, for a max of 1h at each time. PROB30 means there is a 30% chance of temporary conditions occurring. Thereafter, the conditions will revert back to how they were previously.
- VRB10G25KT = wind variable at 10 kt gusting to a maximum of 25 kt
- 4000 = visibility 4000 m
- TSRA = thunderstorms and moderate rain
- SCT005 = scattered clouds at 500 ft
- BKN015CB = broken layer at 1500 ft and Cumulonimbus
=> Concerning visibility at 12 UTC, we might be affected by all the forecasts depending on the time the changes of permanent character will occur as well as the temporary changes.
To be on the safe side, we should expect the worst conditions described and assume that the forecast described by the TEMPO will actually happen. Strong and gusty winds – up to 25 kts – changing direction constantly (VRB) and TSRA may occur. This condition results in a high possibility of Low Level Windshear.
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