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What surface wind is forecast for ETA 17:00 UTC at Kingston?

MKJP 160430Z 1606/1706 36010KT 9999 FEW025CB BECMG1613/1615 14020G34KT FEW015CB SCT025 PROB30 TEMPO 1617/1620 2500 +SHRA SCT010 BKN015CB BECMG 1623/1701 34010KT FEW025=

  • A
    360° / 10 kts.
  • B
    340° / 10 kts.
  • C
    140° / 27 kts.
  • D
    140° / 20 kts gusts 34 kts.

MKJP 160430Z 1606/1706 36010KT 9999 FEW025CB BECMG1613/1615 14020G34KT FEW015CB SCT025 PROB30 TEMPO 1617/1620 2500 +SHRA SCT010 BKN015CB BECMG 1623/1701 34010KT FEW025=

Period of validity is stated as 06:00 UTC day 16 until 06:00 UTC day 17 (2507/2516).
Initial weather conditions are forecasted to be:

  • 36010KT = wind at 360º at 10 kts.
  • 9999 = visibility 10 km or more
  • FEW025CB = few layer of clouds at 2500 ft with cumulonimbus

A change of permanent character is expected to occur on day 16 at any time between 13:00 and 15:00 (BECMG1613/1615) there is only a 30% probability that they will occur (PROB30). After the change occurs, the following conditions are to be expected:
  • 14020G34KT = wind at 140º 20 kt gusting to a maximum of 34 kt (gusts)
  • FEW015CB = few layer of clouds at 1500 ft with cumulonimbus
  • SCT025 = scattered layer of clouds 2500 ft

Next changes expected are of temporary character (TEMPO 1617/1620) => which means that the listed conditions can occur on day 16 at any time between 17:00 and 20:00 UTC, but are not of permanent character and may occur momentarily, for a max of 1h at each time. Thereafter, the conditions will revert back to how they were previously.
  • 2500 = visibility 2500 m
  • +SHRA = heavy showers of rain
  • SCT010 = scattered layer of clouds at 1000 ft
  • BKN015CB = broken layer of clouds at 1500 ft with cumulonimbus

Another change of permanent character is expected to occur later on day 16 at any time between 23:00 and 01:00 on day 17 (1623/1701).
=> At 1700 UTC we can expect the conditions described in the first group of permanent character occurring between 13:00 and 15:00 UTC => 14020G34KT = wind at 140º 20 kt gusting to a maximum of 34 kt (gusts)

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