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Which of the following statements could be used to define 'confirmation bias'?

  • A

    The feedback loop in a closed communication.

  • B

    The preference to find arguments to proof the own mental model.

  • C

    The bias to confirm each radio call.

  • D

    The critical check of ambiguous situations in flight.

CONFIRMATION BIAS

Confirmation bias refers to the tendency of individuals to favor information that confirms their preexisting beliefs or hypotheses while disregarding or undervaluing contradictory evidence. Once an individual constructs a mental model, there is a tendency to selectively seek information that confirms the mental model (confirmation bias) while dismissing other information that might challenge its accuracy.

This bias can influence how people gather, interpret, and recall information, leading them to seek out sources that align with their existing views and to interpret ambiguous evidence in a way that supports their beliefs. Confirmation bias can occur consciously or unconsciously and can distort reasoning processes, potentially leading to flawed decision-making. To prevent confirmation bias, the most effective approach is to actively seek information that could disprove the hypothesis rather than validate it.


Confirmation bias example: Suppose a pilot checks weather reports before a flight and finds information indicating clear skies along the planned route. During the flight, the pilot encounters unexpected cloud formations or turbulence. Despite these new observations suggesting deteriorating weather conditions, the pilot may be inclined to attribute these changes as temporary or inconsequential, fitting them into the initial expectation of clear skies. This bias can potentially lead to underestimating the severity of weather hazards, delaying necessary adjustments to the flight plan, or disregarding alternative weather reports that indicate worsening conditions.

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