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For flight planning purposes, what kind of information is provided by numerical weather forecasts?

  • A

    Precise weather forecast up to 28 days.

  • B

    Visual and infra-red satellity images.

  • C

    Actual location and intensity of precipitation.

  • D

    Upper wind and temperature, humidity.

Numerical Weather Prediction models solve the equations of atmospheric motion on a global or regional grid, using current observations as initial conditions, and produce a four dimensional forecast of wind, temperature, humidity, pressure, geopotential height and cloud cover.

From these fields, products of direct interest for flight planning are derived: upper wind and temperature charts at multiple pressure levels (250, 300, 500 hPa), WAFS grid point data used by flight planning systems, and significant weather forecast charts.

NWP forecasts are reliable for a limited time (about 7 to 10 days for synoptic fields, less for local detail), so a "precise forecast up to 28 days" is unrealistic. 

NWP does not produce satellite imagery (that comes from observation satellites), nor the actual location of precipitation (that comes from radar observations). The most relevant output for flight planning is the upper wind, temperature and humidity field. 


Precise weather forecast up to 28 days → INCORRECT. NWP loses accuracy rapidly with lead time. Beyond 7 to 10 days, only ensemble averages of large scale features are meaningful, and a precise 28 day forecast is not achievable.

Visual and infra red satellite images → INCORRECT. Visual and IR imagery is produced by observation satellites, not by numerical models. Models assimilate the data extracted from these images but do not generate the images themselves.

Actual location and intensity of precipitation → INCORRECT. The actual instantaneous precipitation distribution is observed by weather radar (and some satellite instruments), not produced by models. Models forecast precipitation but do not deliver real time observations.

Upper wind and temperature, humidity → CORRECT. NWP outputs include wind, temperature and humidity at multiple pressure levels, which are the primary inputs for flight planning systems, route optimisation, fuel calculation and ETA estimation.

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